1.
As forecast, after the parties were shown to their rooms, they assembled in the conservatory for afternoon tea
2.
The forecast was for rain, but the full moon seemed to pick the Hollow as
3.
So when her parents required a reference point for the re-supply, or a forecast of certain necessary amendments to their endeavors, Hipolyta's account books were accurate and up-to-date tools for those instances
4.
We most humbly offer our considered forecast of their continued dedication and strength
5.
Kennitch for his forecast of the realized benefits in more specific terms, then resumed
6.
The forecast was for a sustained increase rising to its maximum forty centigrade on the Sunday and that's when the Cleary boys decided on their plan to eradicate the Perols from the area
7.
If you did not I can tell you the weather is predicted to get hotter with no rain forecast
8.
to the weather forecast
9.
He hoped the forecast was wrong, but for now, the rainy weather might provide cover
10.
The forecast called for rain tonight and the possibility of a storm off Lake Erie tomorrow had increased with a big drop in temperature
11.
The forecast was for winds picking up to 30MPH, before a rain storm arrived in the Laurel Mountains
12.
Forecast was for a clear, cold day over the mountains
13.
They had forecast not only Jesus" birth, but his death
14.
" "Thanks for the forecast
15.
The weather changed rapidly as it often did on the South Coast, but this time we were in for a couple days of heavy storms according to the weather forecast on the radio in my car
16.
We called her the “Storefront Girl,” because on one weather forecast, she told us that there were several “storefronts” moving into the area
17.
It is now forecast that 2010 and 2011 will also have less income that what will be paid out
18.
She gave me some advice and clarity, but she cautiously warned me that her knowledge was limited by her evolution, and no one was able to forecast the future with exactitude
19.
that forecast when critical sub-assemblies and raw materials need to be bought
20.
forecast to continue that way until tomorrow morning
21.
and he shall forecast his devices against the strong holds, even for a time
22.
he shall not stand, for they shall forecast devices against him
23.
What is even more alarming is that estimates forecast that
24.
Cash Flow Forecast – A weekly forecast of cash – out 6 weeks – will create a strong control
25.
reports such as the business plan, budget, and cash projections that forecast future needs
26.
The ―scientists‖ continued their program for their livelihood depended upon it and they forecast a continuing warming
27.
When people hear the Pastor accurately forecast God’s destruction of the monument, they’ll believe
28.
“what’s the forecast for the next few hours?”
29.
Strong currents were always in the forecast, since there were
30.
forecast was calling for over a foot of snow late tonight, but he
31.
Generally, the purpose is to review each deal in the pipeline, which in turn is used to forecast revenue (usually in a best- and worst-case scenario)
32.
A recent example of the technology-enhanced ability to have everyone manage processes was described by Denis Pombriant in his look at Right90, which captures and tracks changes to the business forecast (all the things that can and should be forecasted in addition to revenue, so that a company can keep its supply chain informed of coming changes) in real time
33.
With Right90, if a salesperson reports that a customer is doubling an order for 32-inch HDTVs, managers in sales and operations are alerted, and the full implications of the change in the forecast are thoroughly reviewed
34.
While the forecast may look good for killerstandup
35.
Mankind has seen that there are many things that are forecast for the future, things that they have
36.
This month the coldest night’s been twenty-five degrees, and the forecast is for continuing dry, hot weather until Christmas
37.
Rain was forecast for later, so Chris did not go for a long drive
38.
As forecast, the whole “Korean Satellite” fiasco was smoothed over and did not rate a line in even the local rags anymore…life went on
39.
He said the parable referred to two things: First, it was a review of his own ministry up to that time and a forecast of what lay ahead of him for the remainder of his life on earth
40.
1 Having summarized the teachings of Jesus about the kingdom of heaven, we are permitted to narrate certain later ideas which became attached to the concept of the kingdom and to engage in a prophetic forecast of the kingdom as it may evolve in the age to come
41.
His main interest is the weather forecast and as the talk on the television is about the latest credit problems he starts to unpack his huge rucksack
42.
�We need to do it soon as the weather forecast was for rain this evening and we can't afford to leave footprints, give it a half hour then we'll go
43.
The sky above them was growing ever more leaden, and snow had been forecast for the capital late afternoon
44.
Besides, the weather forecast was for a heavy fall of snow soon
45.
forecast the coming storm
46.
sales process and CRM are important tools that can help you manage your team, forecast results and keep your team on course
47.
Forecast and budget; determine whether to build in-house or outsource
48.
presentation showing forecast sales, existing orders (from my friends who all
49.
I really believed their forecast that it would become a quagmire
50.
“Weather forecast says its going to storm, might be snow
51.
A United States federal law makes it illegal to issue a fake weather bureau forecast
52.
First he mentioned the early weather capsule at a few minutes past the hour and then the full forecast fifteen minutes later
53.
If you watch the forecast, what effect will that action have on tomorrow’s climate? The simple answer is none
54.
weather forecast in the ten o’clock news that night”
55.
to forecast the next fifty years of my life
56.
Laura Maya has brought forth over 3 years of specialist knowledge in marketing the company she worked for , and brought on success of the products which she market online for her company with realized online sales exceeding their yearly forecast
57.
A meteorological forecast is nothing more than a guess based on existing conditions relative to similar ones in the past
58.
hear that on the forecast this morning
59.
As it turned out, the forecast southerly never arrived
60.
He foolishly forecast that UDI would not last more than a few weeks
61.
companies themselves often are unable to forecast their future
62.
Darlan pointed out Giraud's lack of legal authority, and insisted that such an order would result in the immediate occupation of southern France by the Germans - a forecast that was soon borne out
63.
Meteorologists forecast gloomy weather for 5th June that caused a postponement of twenty four hours
64.
In the early hours of June 5th, Stagg made what may be the most famous weather prediction in military history: He forecast that the storm would ease off later that day, and that by June 6th, the weather, although still poor, would be acceptable for landing conditions
65.
The cruiser was not classed as sea going, just inshore waters, but the weather forecast was fine, with good visibility and no cloud
66.
The weather forecast had warned of tropical storms, but with everything organized and a good profit for the day’s work, Kate, the pilot took a risk that it was safe enough to fly
67.
The ability to forecast is not as
68.
with the sales forecast
69.
Despite early Japanese victories, Yamamota’s pessimistic forecast that the war would go badly if it lasted more than six months had become true
70.
variation with the market is expected to present a forecast of expected behavior, i
71.
Both of these hypotheses have merit, depending on the time frame of the forecast
72.
I know I can sustain any storm in my life, because I have seen the forecast and prepared for the weather ahead of me
73.
proclaims that no publicly disclosed information can correctly forecast the future path of a
74.
lower capital and consumer spending, the forecast for a stable stock price is dim
75.
forecast with the consistency needed for investing
76.
rather than potential capital utilization; it is a concurrent indicator, and not a leading one, and will not forecast trends over the course of the business cycle
77.
2) an accurate forecast of the next EBIT; 3) some determination of capital requirements; as
78.
When analysts forecast yearly earnings, they extrapolate from projected sales, taking into
79.
forecast to project the estimated size of each item
80.
00 per share and the forecast is for $1
81.
methodology begins with a demand forecast for the industry that considers the direction of
82.
contingency plan to each forecast, and recognize its inherent fragility, he or she will have
83.
If we added that information to our own naive forecast, investors who
84.
integrated demand forecast (the analysts’)
85.
produce a fundamentally derived forecast that compares favorably with naive
86.
Naturally, if analysts will give the investor a sales forecast, then operating income has at least some predictability
87.
forecast morphs into a stock forecast
88.
structure begins with the sales forecast because too much or too little capital raised will
89.
to month changes in asset turnover; the ability to forecast a trend is more significant in a
90.
I could always give a five-day forecast
91.
melt since rain was forecast for this afternoon
92.
Pricing is forecast correctly
93.
Sufficient funds to meet forecast plans without
94.
No rain forecast for tonight or tomorrow
1.
Forecasting a spell: Setting the future in motion (with no
2.
Corporations and investors are tasked with the tremendous burden of forecasting their businesses and investments twenty or thirty years down the road
3.
…Revenues projected years in advance…subject to volatile (market) conditions likely to invalidate forecasting
4.
Aerographer: officer involved in weather forecasting
5.
Despite a morning that warranted a good bit of television in the room, Ian stimulated a motivating date with friends, buzzed on his brew, forecasting on a solid start to experience – Janice obliged
6.
remember the three laws of forecasting: (1) forecasting is difficult; (2) methodology is over-rated;
7.
procedures: one of the Laws of Forecasting tell us that Methodology is Over-rated
8.
Both predicting and forecasting have evolved to the state where they
9.
The Laws of Forecasting set a context for the methods of foretelling
10.
Fundamental and technical analyses are used for forecasting the future direction of the currency
11.
Two types of analysis are used for the market movements forecasting: fundamental, and technical
12.
early thirteenth centuries gives ratios, which play important role in the forecasting of market
13.
When you get to the serious forecasting stage you should already be in close
14.
While forecasting the cost and time delays of using attorneys, I’ll bet the parties could figure out a better settlement, and have way more to split, each
15.
forecasting, prediction, classification, etc
16.
This book is aimed to help you kick-start with analytics including chapters on data visualization, code examples on web analytics and social media analytics, clustering, regression models, text mining, data mining models and forecasting
17.
executive, the mathematical situation is akin to forecasting the path of a hurricane and
18.
task, forecasting in this manner is open to numerous errors, and some analysts simply
19.
forecasting; the index ranges between two numbers depending on location, but once it
20.
dynamic, we are not forecasting per se
21.
with forecasting earnings and the need for company guidance is attributable to this lack of
22.
performance are simply inadequate as forecasting tools
23.
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF FORECASTING
24.
The chain of logic behind forecasting begins with the fact that all companies need a
25.
Students of finance should be especially familiar with forecasting techniques with
26.
them with 5 modules of which forecasting was one
27.
While this is a worthy exercise, the real benefits lie in forecasting the
28.
Ah, 2004! The election that had virtually buried the science of psephology, or poll forecasting
29.
seen, forecasting the doom of the Internet
30.
forecasting what day we would leave this land of the
31.
Perhaps my own mind was forecasting the ending
32.
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology is forecasting a climb of 8 degrees in 2100; a global warming sufficient to kill life on earth
33.
This form of prophecy thereby consists of forecasting and describing
34.
This flowing structure lends itself to the forecasting of future activity in a manner
35.
similar to the forecasting of weather patterns
36.
forecasting one week ahead with the trendline
37.
So we are safe in forecasting the conclusion that the most Campbell has accomplished is the weaving of another web over the mists surrounding the simplicity of words
38.
forecasting the weather, predicting the forex market is sometimes a crapshoot,
39.
” Nor was I forecasting that society would be overrun by “stream-entrants” and “non-returners” of the Joseph Goldstein variety
40.
Drew applied his theory with generally good forecasting results until the end of the 1960s
41.
A FORECASTING GIANT OF THE PAST
42.
Angas himself developed an extraordinary forecasting record during the 1920-1940 period, when he was invariably right about stock price movements in England and the United States and their associated economic fluctuations
43.
In his later years his forecasting record became more erratic
44.
as forecasting tool, 45
45.
He is managing—not forecasting
46.
As technical analysts use past market data to make their prediction of future directional movement, options traders use the historical price behavior as a component of forecasting future market action
47.
The professional traders are estimating what volatility will be or forecasting volatility
48.
Assuming that we will keep the position “delta neutral,” thereby taking away the price forecasting element, we may measure the profitability of the trade by examining the actual volatility for the duration of the trade
49.
These and other technical tools apply in volatility forecasting
50.
This interpretation applies directly to forecasting volatility
51.
To better understand the difference between the various types of volatilities, consider the following analogy to weather and weather forecasting
52.
Understandably, a ‘reversed head and shoulders’ is the same thing upside down, forecasting a rise
53.
Trading in the market, forecasting next year’s results for various businesses, selecting the best media for long-term expansion—all these have a useful place in Wall Street
54.
FORECASTING SECURITY PRICES is not properly a part of security analysis
55.
We shall confine ourselves to considering the broader lines of reasoning that are involved in the major premises of price forecasting
56.
The Second Type of Mechanical Forecasting
57.
Before considering the significance of this injection of the judgment factor, let us pass on to the other type of mechanical forecasting, which is based upon factors outside of the market itself
58.
This simple method is representative of all mechanical forecasting systems, in that (1) it sounds vaguely plausible on the basis of a priori reasoning and (2) it relies for its convincingness on the fact that it has “worked” for a number of years past
59.
Many of the forecasting services are therefore driven to a sort of pseudo-science, in which they take it for granted that certain time lags or certain coincidences that happened to occur several times in the past (or have been worked out laboriously by a process of trial and error), can be counted upon to occur in much the same way in the future
60.
, entirely dependable) forecasting in the economic field is a logical impossibility
61.
3 These indices may also be plotted on charts, in which case the forecasting takes on the aspect of chart reading
62.
Both companies have since become more circumspect about forecasting the future
63.
We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator’s financial results
64.
We lack space here to discuss in detail the pros and cons of market forecasting
65.
For who will buy when the general public, at a given signal, rushes to sell out at a profit? If you, the reader, expect to get rich over the years by following some system or leadership in market forecasting, you must be expecting to try to do what countless others are aiming at, and to be able to do it better than your numerous competitors in the market
66.
It demonstrates an inherent characteristic of forecasting and trading formulas in the fields of business and finance
67.
Aside from forecasting the movements of the general market, much effort and ability are directed on Wall Street toward selecting stocks or industrial groups that in matter of price will “do better” than the rest over a fairly short period in the future
68.
Many of these services confine themselves exclusively, or nearly so, to forecasting market movements by various “technical” methods
69.
Wall Street’s view of the longer future is notoriously fallible, and this necessarily applies to that important part of its investigations which is directed toward the forecasting of the course of profits in various industries
70.
bankruptcy; and aggressive investors; of brokerage houses; case histories about; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and investment funds; and market fluctuations; and price; of railroads; and security analysis
71.
bear markets; and aggressive investors; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and market fluctuations; silver lining to
72.
bonds: and advice; and aggressive investors; and asset allocation; and bargains; calls on; and characteristics of intelligent investors; common stocks compared with; and convertible issues and warrants; coupons for; “coverage” for; defaults on; and defensive investors; discount; distressed; and diversification; earnings on; and Graham’s business principles; and history and forecasting of stock market; inflation and; interest on; and investment funds; and investments vs
73.
bull markets; and bargains; characteristics of; and convertible issues and warrants; and dealings with brokerage houses; death/end of; history and forecasting of; length of; and market fluctuations; and new offerings; and portfolio policy for aggressive investors
74.
cash/“cash equivalents”: and aggressive investors; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and security analysis
75.
common stock: and advice; for aggressive investors; and asset allocation; bonds compared with; characteristics of; for defensive investors; dividends on; earnings on; expected growth (1963 and 1969) of; general long-term prospects for; general observations on; as growth stock; and history and forecasting of stock market; inflation and; investment merits of; investment rules for; and investments vs
76.
inflation; accuracy of rate of; as dead; and defensive investors; and history and forecasting of stock market; and money illusion; nominal and real; and price; protection against; and Raskob’s prescription; and returns/yield; and risk; and taxes; and value
77.
interest; and aggressive investors; and bargains; compound; and Cramer’s recommendations; and defensive investors; and expectations for investors; fixed; and history and forecasting of stock market; inflation and; and margin of safety; and security analysis; and taxes
78.
yield: and aggressive investors; and convertible issues and warrants; and defensive investors; fluctuations in; and history and forecasting of stock market; and inflation; and speculation
79.
Supercomputer systems, for example, can combine the capabilities of hundreds of processors to perform complex tasks that require enormous numbers of computations, such as weather forecasting
80.
To emphasize the fact that patterns are prone to change and failure and we should never rely on classical charting as a precise forecasting tool, this chapter will focus on set-ups that did not work
81.
Forecasting inflation is the easy part
82.
As a firm, we were probably unique in that since we were so intimately tied to the stock market, we used it as a forecasting tool for our own business
83.
Four Things to Consider When Forecasting Implied Volatility
84.
OPMIs, on the other hand, are not in a position to alter the way a corporation’s resources are used, and understandably are thus less likely to use this resource conversion approach in forecasting future earnings
85.
GARP analysis focuses strictly on forecasting future flows, whether such flows are revenues, earnings, or cash
86.
We identify limitations of GARP, which stem from its underlying assumptions including: the view that businesses are pure going concerns, heavy weight is given to the past earnings record when forecasting future earnings growth, industry identification is important to GARP, acceptance of the generally accepted consensus of growth potentials rather than reliance on independent appraisals of growth potentials, a tendency towards buying what is popular when it is most popular
87.
In GADCP we give no primacy to flows in forecasting future growth but rather consider the quantity and quality of resources in a business as well as managements’ appraisals as investors and financiers, and potential resource conversion opportunities while being extremely price conscious
88.
Items that are perceived to be critical are inside information about corporate events that they believe will have market impact; technical systems that they believe will assist in forecasting general market trends and individual stock price movements; and trading information that can either be reacted to or used
89.
We agree with the modern capital theorists that it is a losing exercise for almost all outside investors to try to beat the market by forecasting price movements over any particular length of time, say within the next year
90.
Instead of just forecasting earnings, in FF, prognostications are made about:
91.
Growth analysis focuses strictly on forecasting future flows, whether such flows are revenues, earnings, or cash
92.
GAAP are probably not very helpful for investors focused strictly on forecasting future growth trends in income or cash flow without looking to the leavening provided by non–income account GAAP disclosures
93.
3 We discuss the pitfalls of this approach to forecasting earnings in Chapter 6 on net asset value
94.
The company is now forecasting total production in 2009 to be between 800 MWp and 1 GWp, lower than the previous forecast
95.
In January 2009, the company increased its outlook for 2009 by forecasting revenue for the year to be between $345 and $350 million; this would be approximately an increase of 40 percent from the 2008 number
96.
A recent help wanted ad touted openings with a sportsbook; they were looking for statisticians who could help them develop real-time software for forecasting the outcomes of cricket matches
97.
By the 1970s NASA (the National Aeronautical and Space Agency) was launching Landsats that could transmit detailed pictures of the earth, which could then be used for anything from weather forecasting to crop management
98.
As option traders have come to appreciate the importance of volatility as an input into a pricing model, volatility forecasting models have been developed in an attempt to more accurately predict future realized volatility
1.
Jista smiled and pulled up the new data for their forecasts of piratical activities, now reaching deep into the void of the local bubble in the Spur---as far from the snug regions of historical Alliance space as the Guild's influence had yet reached
2.
Ray and his special elite force stashed their own personal selection along with all the other goodies they had secreted away all these years for a rainy day which, according to recent weather forecasts, was just around the corner
3.
His forecasts were based on the moon going through its thirty-six year cycle
4.
11 For wickedness, condemned by her own witness, is very timorous, and being pressed with conscience, always forecasts grievous
5.
this, but you must not indulge in forecasts and plans, born of
6.
Forecasts of income and expenses
7.
Forecasts of sources and uses of cash
8.
No Intense Focus On Cash And Cash Forecasts
9.
Dave’s job was to present the financial reports and forecasts
10.
‘November’s always hot, and according to the forecasts it’s going to get hotter and dryer before the monsoons arrive
11.
Yield forecasts had been significantly increased
12.
Minimize the amount of time your reps spend on estimates and forecasts
13.
Your forecasts are probably all
14.
future growth forecasts of the business
15.
Too many forecasts about science in the
16.
We had taken into account the weather, in planning the murder, and we knew, from the forecasts that there would be a short but intensive shower about midday
17.
“This one forecasts an increase in the population
18.
The weather forecasts are even announcing fog for the early morning
19.
accurate forecasts of rising earnings will attract capital
20.
capital model must harbor some assumptions based on forecasts and would be prone to
21.
4) Use analyst’s forecasts to your advantage
22.
situation in which the investor can depend on analyst’s forecasts
23.
forecasts once “guidance” is received from the company , but the average investor does not
24.
variability in forecasts because it is essentially a mathematical version of Murphy ’s Law:
25.
analysts’ forecasts with our mathematical determinations
26.
to make earnings forecasts ourselves, but will rely on consensus opinion to provide inputs
27.
Investing on the basis of forecasts is tenuous
28.
forecasts are less than the time progression, but we need to recognize that changes occur
29.
One major reason for discrepancies between sales forecasts and stock predictions is
30.
forecasts, only in the thrall of the weather itself were we sure what was
31.
year forecasts based on assumptions which are, at best, guesses as to the state
32.
"That one costs $1,000 because it can do everything the first one can do plus it knows how to prepare financial forecasts"
33.
Having checked all the snow reports and weather forecasts, Dusty Miller and Roger Lloyd decided to head for Rochers-de-Naye that weekend, where, at 2,045 meters, there was already enough snow for some decent skiing, and more was forecast during the next few days
34.
diatribe and the intrepid Lynn Coggin upon whose Factory Capacity Forecasts the
35.
‘The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 6
36.
The work breakdown structure forecasts for this project stage are for beginning machine relocation and installation into the new shop
37.
Nevertheless, it is still planed to study weather forecasts for the specific period when such works are scheduled
38.
Housing news over the past year has yielded a mixed bag of opinions and forecasts
39.
STATEMENTS GIVE OUR EXPECTATIONS OR FORECASTS OF FUTURE EVENTS
40.
The weather forecasts were predicting
41.
But it was not until the short-term forecasts made
42.
The weather - of which I write so much, it being a key factor of northern hunts - has, contrary to the forecasts, not improved
43.
them, and they made GDP forecasts for the next ten years with confidence that
44.
It would be stupid to climb when weather forecasts are predicting a snowstorm in the general vicinity
45.
You're familiar with some of them, such as the thermometer, which gives the temperature inside the Nautilus; the barometer, which measures the heaviness of the outside air and forecasts changes in the weather; the humidistat, which indicates the degree of dryness in the atmosphere; the storm glass, whose mixture decomposes to foretell the arrival of tempests; the compass, which steers my course; the sextant, which takes the sun's altitude and tells me my latitude; chronometers, which allow me to calculate my longitude; and finally, spyglasses for both day and night, enabling me to scrutinize every point of the horizon once the Nautilus has risen to the surface of the waves
46.
At first, I must say, events seemed to confirm my forecasts, much to the Canadian's despair
47.
During the night, in line with my forecasts, a new one–meter slice was removed from this immense socket
48.
And the conversation passed to forecasts of the coming race, the only thing Vronsky could think of just now
49.
Our investor also knows the beliefs and forecasts shared by the crowd, which he has learned from its current members
50.
An investment theme is a basket of explanations and of the forecasts that seem to be their obvious consequences
51.
We see then that economic and business information and forecasts, the dreams and fears of investors, and the movements of prices in the financial markets all have important roles to play in the creation of an investment crowd
52.
Even though it won’t last, it helps us to look back and find out what has really happened, and it enables us to begin a new series of forecasts
53.
He asked me to raise money for him and promised to multiply it a hundredfold in six months! I do not know how many fools he hooked, but dramatic forecasts have always been good for fleecing the public
54.
Amateurs love forecasts, and mysticism is a great marketing gimmick
55.
If you disagree with the adviser’s forecasts of the next six months or five years (and your guess may be as good as anybody’s) it is important to say so, so that the portfolio can be adjusted to the satisfaction of both of you
56.
These tend to be accompanied by extensive disclosures, accounts and forecasts, rivalling the annual report in scope
57.
We are sceptical of the ability of any paid agency to provide reliable forecasts of the market action of either bonds or stocks
58.
As a matter of business practice, or perhaps of thoroughgoing conviction, the stock brokers and the investment services seem wedded to the principle that both investors and speculators in common stocks should devote careful attention to market forecasts
59.
But it is absurd to think that the general public can ever make money out of market forecasts
60.
For years the financial services have been making stock-market forecasts without anyone taking this activity very seriously
61.
These estimates, in turn, are grounded first on general economic forecasts of gross national product, and then on special calculations applicable to the industry and company in question
62.
The Value Line, a leading investment service, makes forecasts of future earnings and dividends by the procedure outlined above, and then derives a figure of “price potentiality” (or projected market value) by applying a valuation formula to each issue based largely on certain past relationships
63.
The combined forecasts proved to be somewhat on the low side, but not seriously so
64.
The reader will note that quite a number of the individual forecasts were wide of the mark
65.
Ideally, perhaps, the security analyst should pick out the three or four companies whose future he thinks he knows the best, and concentrate his own and his clients’ interest on what he forecasts for them
66.
Unfortunately, it appears to be almost impossible to distinguish in advance between those individual forecasts which can be relied upon and those which are subject to a large chance of error
67.
* Such assumptions have always been difficult to make with any degree of confidence, and the recent violent swings in long-term interest rates render forecasts of this sort almost presumptuous
68.
Read the past annual reports to see what forecasts the managers made and if they fulfilled them or fell short
69.
Over the long run, money manager David Dreman has shown, 59% of Wall Street’s “consensus” earnings forecasts miss the mark by a mortifyingly wide margin—either underestimating or overestimating the actual reported earnings by at least 15%
70.
The intelligent investor excels by making decisions that are not dependent on the accuracy of anybody’s forecasts, including his or her own
71.
Therefore, investing on the basis of projection is a fool’s errand; even the forecasts of the so-called experts are less reliable than the flip of a coin
72.
11 In the late 1990s, the forecasts of “market strategists” became more influential than ever before
73.
50—30% and 23% below her forecasts, respectively
74.
It did not help that they backed up the forecasts of their models with tons of borrowed money, insuring that if they were wrong for only a short time, the mistake would still be lethal
75.
As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised
76.
(We believe that short-term forecasts of stock or bond prices are useless
77.
The forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future
78.
Not only do top down investors have to make the right forecasts, they have to make them better and faster than their competitors do
79.
The third virtue is focus: Don't be distracted by global predictions or macro forecasts, either by listening to them or making them yourself
80.
These factors are used by conventional analyses to price common stock relative to others with the same characteristics (static equilibrium) or relative to forecasts of future earnings (dynamic disequilibrium)
81.
history, forecasts of cash and earnings flows have been notoriously unreliable
82.
In GADCP, though, there is strong recognition given to the fact that most forecasts, no matter what techniques are used to make them, are going to prove to have been inaccurate
83.
It is just too difficult to properly put into forecasts factors such as competitive forces, technological innovations, inexperienced managements, business cycles, access to capital markets and acts of God
84.
Knowing of the inherent unreliability of its forecasts, we restrict our common stock investments to issues that enjoy very high-quality resources where we can acquire its interests at prices that represent a meaningful discount from the estimated quantity of resources that exist in a business
85.
In FF, what is refers to the use of analytic techniques that concentrate on the known situation of a company—the quality and quantity of resources in a company, with little or no concentration on forecasts of relatively near term flows (say, over the next 12 months), except for sudden-death events
86.
Value is determined by forecasts of discounted cash flow (DCF) (Chapters 2, 5, and 6)
87.
Rather, the essential condition for the purchase is the perception of a relatively near-term catalyst that will result in price appreciation, whether that catalyst is embodied in prospects for improved earnings, for earnings in excess of consensus forecasts, or for such a transaction as a merger and acquisition (M&A), a major refinancing, or a liquidation
88.
Traditionally, there have been industries in which such forecasts could be made with reasonable accuracy (e
89.
When research department forecasts prove to be overly optimistic, as many do, the analyst often has no anchor to windward, as would exist were the shares recommended on some other basis than merely estimates of future flows
90.
By concentrating almost exclusively on earnings or cash flow forecasts and capitalization rates, analysts have no safety net when prices get way out of line
91.
Analyses That Focus on Base Case Forecasts Rather than Alternative Scenarios
92.
An investor putting $100 million or more of his or her own funds into an equity situation in which the funds will be tied up on a permanent or semipermanent basis usually does not rely as heavily on base case forecasts as do research department analysts and conventional money managers
93.
If you are going to try to predict near-term prices, you had better focus on what you believe influential others think: buy and sell recommendations of major research departments, consensus forecasts of quarterly earnings, and insider trading
94.
Here, one reported number—EPS quarter by quarter—seems to define reality, especially in relation to when that EPS number equals, exceeds, or falls short of consensus forecasts
95.
The scope of permissible insider disclosures has been expanded by the Safe Harbor Act (under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) so that now, subject to hedge clauses, managements are freer to make forecasts
96.
Soft information, such as company forecasts, company budgets, and valuation appraisals of assets—for example, appraisals of the value of income producing real estate—are not disclosed
97.
These forecasts were to be made voluntarily, and forecasters were to be given a safe harbor, that is, they generally would not be held liable under the federal securities laws for reasonably based projections that did not work out (Exchange Act Releases 15305 and 15306, dated November 7, 1978)
98.
Here, management forecasts and budgets were crucial to anyone contemplating becoming an investor in or creditor of Duplan
99.
analyses that focus on base case forecasts